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This One Stock Can Keep You Ahead of a Cooling Melt-Up

Posted December 10, 2024

Greg Guenthner

By Greg Guenthner

This One Stock Can Keep You Ahead of a Cooling Melt-Up

This market melt-up is all about high-octane speculation.

Bitcoin, meme coins, and forgotten growth names like Docusign (DOCU) are stealing the spotlight – and rightly so.

These are the hotspots delivering jaw-dropping returns for investors.

With Bitcoin soaring past $100K, DOGE surging, and the S&P 500 flirting with uncharted highs, it’s no wonder assets outside of cryptocurrencies and AI are being overlooked.

But these trends won’t stay red-hot forever.

Now is the time to position ourselves, so we’re ready when the tides inevitably shift.

Volatility is tightening. Riskier commodity plays are pushing into record territory. And elsewhere in the market, under-the-radar opportunities are starting to shine…

The Calm Before the Storm

You can’t make this stuff up…

Gold futures (where investors think gold’s price will be at a future delivery date) have gone flat since we talked about a Golden Dip Buying Opportunity the Friday before Thanksgiving. (Nowhere, nada, zilch.)

To be fair, the dip has held, and the buying opportunity still stands.

In fact, the lack of upside or downside movement in gold may prove constructive.

I’m sure you’ve heard the Wall Street adage, “Price doesn’t move in a straight line.”

Even if you haven’t, I bet you’ve experienced countless ups and downs in your retirement account – the same account that steadily grinds higher over the years.

It’s easy to forget this simple fact, especially during melt-up season, but price trends expand and contract over time.

Uptrends have a rhythm of expansion and contraction: Rallies fall into periods of consolidation that lead into the next leg higher, which ultimately falls into another period of consolidation.

Gold futures are trading within the latter after printing a series of new all-time highs – pretty standard stuff. 

But an abnormal lack of short-term volatility has us on high alert.

Check out the Gold chart with historical volatility in the lower pane…

The red arrow highlights gold’s volatility falling off a cliff as price consolidates within a tight 2% range.

I know it’s only been a little over a week, but I doubt this extreme volatility compression will last long. Buyers and sellers will likely choose the next course (up or down) in the coming weeks.

To be clear, a low-volatility environment does not offer insight into an asset's future direction.

It does, however, increase the likelihood of an explosive resolution.

Whether gold rips toward fresh highs or slides to new lows partly depends on silver’s next move…

No Silver, No Party

Gold’s crazy cousin is rallying to its highest level in weeks.

Finally!

Silver is on the move after revisiting its former August highs for the better part of last month. And no one is more excited than the gold bugs…

A bid beneath silver signals growing appetite for risk as investors move toward more volatile opportunities. When silver is hot, precious metals benefit across the board.

Of course, the opposite is true when silver falls out of favor.

Last year, gold failed multiple breakout attempts while silver lagged. In fact, gold’s long-awaited new all-time highs didn’t grace the market until silver outpaced gold in March 2024.

Today, a similar scenario is unfolding: Gold futures are range-bound as silver lags.

Perhaps we’ve witnessed a near-term low for the shiny yellow rock, but a prolonged sideways trend will take hold as long as silver trails gold.

But if you see Silver catching toward 33, be prepared…

How to Play a Rally

If silver futures continue to pick up the pace, track the miners. They will experience rip-roaring rallies during the next leg higher.

Gold mining stocks Alamos Gold (AGI), Harmony Gold Mining (HMY), and Eldorado Gold (EGO) come to mind, as well as silver mining names Fortuna Silver Mining (FSM) and MAG Silver (MAG).

They all look constructive.

However, the best mining play on the sheets is the Uranium bellwether Cameco Corp. (CCJ).

We bought CCJ calls - which means we’re simply betting on higher price movement - over at The Trading Desk last week, following a 17-year-base-breakout to new all-time highs (it doesn’t get more bullish than that).

However, trading mining stocks comes with challenges.

Cameco took a 5% haircut yesterday as the broader market saw red. Most casual investors would balk at a move like this.

I understand.

It’s never fun when a trade digs into your pocket right out of the gate.

On the flip side, CCJ can rally double-digits in a matter of days.

That’s how mining stocks roll.

They’re speculative runners, much like the meme coins and tech-growth stocks enjoying the year-end melt-up. Upside and downside volatility comes with the territory as we venture further out on the risk spectrum.

Today’s speculative hotspots will eventually cool, though. Remember, price doesn’t move in a straight line.

When these rallies take a breather and begin to consolidate, precious metals could be the next assets to rocket to new highs.

Meanwhile, we’ll continue to track silver and let you know when we’re in for a major breakout…

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