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Bear Killer

Posted May 09, 2025

Greg Guenthner

By Greg Guenthner

Bear Killer

Something’s happening this week that I can feel in my chest…

The market is spinning. Headlines are full of fear.

Bears are on the prowl. Even the calmest hands are starting to shake.

Every flicker on the screen feels loaded.

You can feel the tension’s about to snap.

But in the midst of all this, one stock stands apart.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) is cutting through the noise like a flare in the dark.

And it’s happening right as Bitcoin surges past $100,000 — a signal that something bigger might be brewing beneath the surface.

But the week didn’t begin with a bang. In fact, I was preparing for some tough action as many stocks were bumping into key resistance levels.

Instead, I’m watching one of my top stocks suddenly break out.

It’s the kind of move that forces you to stop everything and reevaluate. There’s something undeniably alive in this chart.

Momentum doesn’t wait for permission. It takes over. It feeds on fear, hesitation, disbelief — turning these doubts into fuel for the next leg higher.

Bottom line: HOOD has room to run.

But here’s the part no one wants to talk about: it won’t be easy.

Moves like this never are.

Every breakout brings moments of doubt. Every surge has a pullback that tests your conviction. That’s the tradeoff and the emotional toll. Go back and study every major winner and you’ll find all of them endured significant drawdowns — getting cut in half on multiple occasions along their paths to mega-cap status.

That’s why it always pays to keep an eye on the charts, even when it comes to your longer-term positions. You’ll get a better idea of when to add to your position — or start a new one — regardless of whether the market is in flux.

Today, I’m going to dive into my latest thoughts on the stock’s recent performance following its first quarter earnings report. I’ll reveal my roadmap for this fast-moving position, along with key price levels and two different buying scenarios you can use to play along at home.

This is about being ready when the market offers you something rare — a moment where everything clicks.

Keep reading. You’ll want to see what comes next.

A New Mega-Cap in the Making

First, some background:

You might remember my Robinhood thesis published just before Liberation Day shenanigans tore the market to shreds.

Simply put, HOOD is the one stock everyone will wish they bought today five years from now. It’s disrupting traditional financial landscapes and opening opportunities far beyond just trading stocks.

I believe the stock will double by the end of the year, crossing the $100 threshold (maybe sooner rather than later). I also think it has a shot to be the first fintech among all major banks and institutions to reach a trillion-dollar market cap. Of course, I’m also putting my money where my mouth is. HOOD remains the largest position in my long-term portfolio. And it’s only getting bigger!

But before Bitcoin started to break out this week, it looked like HOOD would need a lot more time to digest its recent earnings reaction. The company reported Q1 results on April 30. The numbers were fine on the surface: a triple-digit rise in earnings and solid revenue aided by a 50% jump in transactions, according to Barron’s.

Yet the numbers failed to impress investors, and the stock languished in a choppy range during the first week of May. Shares were trapped below the line in the sand at $50 — an area that was becoming increasingly important following the sharp drop off the February highs.

Perhaps even more troubling was the fact that Bitcoin was clearly firming up as HOOD slipped. Bitcoin started the trading month by building on its April run, crossing above $95K for the first time since February.

Meanwhile, HOOD was down the day following its earnings announcement. It also ended the week in the red as Bitcoin was pushing toward a bigger breakout.

Timing is Everything

If you asked me last week, I would have told you HOOD will likely trade in a wide range between $35-$45 for weeks, if not a few months. I was even prepared to buy the bounce following any dip into the $30s to add to my long-term position.

But volatile markets didn’t care about my well-laid plans.

As Bitcoin firmed up again, HOOD abruptly changed course. The stock firmed up, then posted a strong breakout above $50.

Just like that, HOOD is back in play for a run back above $60 toward those Q1 highs.

As you can see, the environment can change in an instant.

And we have to be just as quick to react to these moves. Instead of looking to buy on the dips, I’m considering $50 as the new floor for HOOD barring some unexpected swing lower. This is an area I would look to pick up the stock now as the market continues to act favorably and the crypto catalyst strengthens.

Remember, there’s nothing wrong with buying higher — as long as you have viable levels to trade against. If HOOD falls materially below $50, I’ll know I’m wrong. If it holds, we have a clear path to new highs and a viable pathway to topping $100 by the end of the year. It’s that simple.

The stock market is twisting investors into pretzels this week as it continues to defy the odds and push off its tariff panic lows. Adapt or die!

You won’t want to miss out.

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