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Tonight Is Do or Die for Bitcoin…

Posted March 04, 2025

Greg Guenthner

By Greg Guenthner

Tonight Is Do or Die for Bitcoin…

“Tomorrow night will be big. I will tell it like it is!”

Those were the words of Donald Trump yesterday morning as he took to social media to promote tonight’s congressional address.

Who knows what he’ll say? But I bet the market will react. 

That’s right: The “Trump Pump” is flowing!

It started up again early Sunday when The Donald opened the spigot by announcing plans for his Executive Order on Digital Assets on – you guessed it – TruthSocial.

Bitcoin ripped, alt-coins took flight, and crypto bulls erased most of last week’s losses.

Surely, the Bitcoin maxis must be rejoicing.

But they’re not, and I have a good idea of what could be causing the crypto community’s dour mood… 

Just Another Pump and Dump?

No, all is not well in the cryptosphere. Something just doesn’t smell right.

For starters, Trump’s original crypto plans floated back in late January proposed a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve – not a Crypto Strategic Reserve – which makes sense if the goal is to prepare for universal Bitcoin adoption for global trade and savings.

So why altcoins?

I thought Trump was keen on fixing trade inefficiencies (or perhaps imbalances). Throwing together a worthless basket of coins would do the exact opposite.

Shouldn’t the powers that be pick one crypto or shiny rock and call it a day? Can’t we all agree to save ourselves the headache of currency baskets?

Think about it: Altcoins probably have no business in a long-term portfolio, let alone a U.S. government reserve.

But Trump’s crypto reserve post may have had his desired effect — pumping the ailing coins following last month’s drop!

Remember, The Donald seemed to have no problem shilling Trump and Melania meme coins shortly before he took office. Why not try to inflate some of the more popular alt-coins this go-round?

The announcement clearly had the desired effect. Solana, Ripple, and Cardano (the three coins Trump mentioned by name Sunday morning) soared 24%, 34%, and 72%, respectively.

But those rallies proved fleeting.

The crypto space promptly returned its weekend gains Monday afternoon (a little more than 24 hours from Trump’s Sunday proclamation).

That’s right. Investors are calling BS on Trump’s most recent pump as it quickly turns into a sell-the-news event.

If buyers don’t step in soon, BTC bulls could enter a world of pain. And the casual crypto investor will be sent for a loop if these next levels fail to hold…

A Moment of Truth for the Crypto King

BTC is living on prayer every day it trades below $90k.

To be clear, I believe Bitcoin has a long road ahead. That road merely leads to the downside if it’s trading below its December low.

The late 2024 low marks a psychological level that put a floor in Bitcoin until last week.

So you can forget about revisiting last year’s high, and you can throw those Bitcoin $200K t-shirts back in the closet if it’s chopping below those former lows… 

Bitcoin casually coughed up a majority of its post-announcement gains by Monday afternoon, knifing back below our line in the sand.

There’s no point in sugarcoating it: If Bitcoin can’t reclaim this area immediately, we will likely see lower prices in the weeks ahead.

In fact, I bet Bitcoin makes a beeline for $73,000, a likely landing spot marking the top of 2024’s sideways range.

No, that’s probably not the end of the world for Bitcoin. It’ll turn out just fine after a longer drawdown and consolidation.

Or perhaps Trump will make claims during tonight’s address that steer buyers toward BTC and the entire crypto space.

I won’t hold my breath. Instead, I’ll focus on the levels.

Make no mistake, a false move like the one we just experienced has downside consequences.

If $90K isn’t back on the menu soon, there will be more short-term pain. Stay tuned.

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