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Stagflation Survival Guide

Posted April 24, 2025

Enrique Abeyta

By Enrique Abeyta

Stagflation Survival Guide

Forget tariffs…

The financial media's latching onto a new buzzword – stagflation.

This nasty combination of high inflation and low (or no) economic growth is one of the most feared words in the stock market.

The last time we saw inflation characterized by a similar mix of economic signals was the 1970s, a decade notorious for its stagflationary environment and crippling market returns.

Meanwhile, the current selloff continues to grind away retirement portfolios, sentiment remains in the dumps, and the hot trade on the street is “sell America.”

U.S. investors are shaking in their boots. It’s understandable, but it’s also a choice.

You can transcend the fear and chaos by elevating your trading and investing strategies.

I’ll show you how by drawing three examples from, you guessed it, the 1970s.

You can think of it as your stock market survival guide for the next ten years.

But first, let’s take a short walk down Memory Lane…

The Lost Decade

If you weren't around during that time, were too young to recall, or just don't remember, the 1970s were marked by a flat but violently churning stock market.

Take a look at the S&P 500 Index from 1970 to the end of 1982.

As you can see, the S&P 500 entered 1970 at nearly 100.

During the selloff in the summer of 1982, it nearly went back to that same level — essentially flat for more than a decade — before finally turning higher by the end of the year.

However, some great opportunities emerged during this period. The S&P 500 rallied 74% from 1970 to late 1972, 73% from 1974 to mid-1976, and 61% from early 1978 to the end of 1980.

It also got crushed a couple of times, falling 50% from 1973 to 1974, 20% from 1977 to 1978, and finally 26% from the end of 1980 to late 1982.

However, only one of those drawdowns was similar to the market crashes we've seen most recently.

This illustrates one of our points about bear markets across broader history: They don't have to go down 50%.

Looking at the above chart from a trading perspective, you can see there were at least three opportunities to set up huge gains — even in a flat market.

Here at Truth & Trends, we've spoken about the "counterpunch" opportunities that exist within bear markets.

Interestingly, there are only two times when you'd typically see 30% to 100% moves higher in stocks in less than a couple of months.

One such time is during stock market bubbles, like what we saw last year.

The other (surprisingly enough) is in the middle of bear markets. The rallies are fierce and steep, presenting some fantastic tactical opportunities, like the one we think is quickly setting up right now.

So, even if it does look like the 1970s, we can still find plenty of great trading opportunities.

But what about long-term investors?

Index investing wasn't a big thing back in the 1970s. And looking at the chart above, folks who did invest in the S&P 500 didn't do so well.

Now that doesn't mean investors couldn't have made money. Above, we showed how trading produced some strong returns... But there were also a bunch of major winners in long-term investing.

As always, the key was finding growth companies.

1970s Mega-Winners: Burgers, Energy, and a Big-Box Store

Let's start with fast-food giant McDonald's (MCD). Take a look at the stock from 1970 to 1982.

As you can see, MCD shares went from a low of just below a split-adjusted $0.12 to $1.13 by late 1982, or almost a 10-bagger.

Another big winner during the period was oil services company Halliburton (HAL). Take a look...

Benefiting from the rise in energy prices and the expansion of drilling activity, Halliburton was a five-bagger during the period before oil prices collapsed.

Halliburton is also particularly interesting in today's environment, as we're bullish on energy stocks in the intermediate term and believe they offer some good trading opportunities.

Our final example of 1970s mega winners is retail giant Walmart (WMT).

From a low of a split-adjusted $0.016 per share, the stock closed out the period at $0.48 per share — a return of an incredible 3,000% across an eight-year period!

Now, these companies obviously went on to become even more dominant today. But the point is that if we really are in another period like the 1970s, then both trading and stock selection become paramount.

The passive, index-focused strategies that have produced such powerful returns for the past 30 years will not succeed anymore.

That doesn’t mean you can’t make great returns. You just need to be more focused on finding the great companies and ride them through the storm!

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