Print the page
Increase font size
“Luck Is Not Real”

Posted February 19, 2026

Enrique Abeyta

By Enrique Abeyta

“Luck Is Not Real”

I love watching CNBC. That may be surprising coming from somebody like me.

Many people view financial media as noise at best, or extremely biased at worst. And I don’t necessarily disagree.

However, I have learned to use CNBC as a market barometer over the years.

There are plenty of smart guests with great insights, and that information can help inform your trading decisions.

I remember a segment from a while back with the entrepreneur and crypto commentator Anthony Pompliano, or "Pomp," as he’s known on the show.

I wasn’t that familiar with his work since I spend most of my time in stocks and commodities, but I was impressed with his optimistic outlook.

During the interview, he said something that has stuck with me ever since…

"Luck is not real."

Here’s what he meant by that — and more importantly, how it could make you more successful in the markets.

A Philosophy for the Markets and Life

Pomp’s idea was that luck is a purely psychological concept. It’s about our perception of what has happened in the world around us.

He uses the example of two people in a similar car accident. Imagine they are severely injured and lose a limb.

One of the injured people might sit in their hospital bed and think to themselves how “unlucky” they were to be in the accident and lose a limb.

The one next to them might be thinking about how “lucky” they are to be alive.

They both have been through the same experience, but have a completely different perspective on what has happened.

Pomp pointed out that research shows that people who consider themselves lucky are likely to have better outcomes.

He’s right. I spend a lot of time thinking about the power of psychology and optimism in investing and life.

If you have a positive outlook, you are in a much better position to learn from and deal with failure.

Instead of being “unlucky,” you have an opportunity to improve your future outcomes.

This comes back to one of my favorite concepts: we make our own luck.

In his interview, Pomp discusses how luck is really related to probability. Probability is not a psychological concept but a mathematical one.

It’s also the concept that underlies our strategies for trading and investing.

We work to identify opportunities with a high probability of making money.

An unsophisticated observer could see our returns and say we are very "lucky.” We win at a much higher rate than would be random and outperform the stock market averages.

I argue that we make our luck by having a process to identify those opportunities.

Embedded in that process is also the idea of continual improvement and evolution.

I actively identify mistakes made in our losses and work to eliminate them. I look at our biggest wins and figure out how to maximize them.

I believe that our process works and that it can always get better.

This is a great perspective — not just for the markets but also for life!

The Dark Side of the Tape

The Dark Side of the Tape

Posted March 04, 2026

By Nick Riso

You can see a stock’s price in any brokerage app. But there’s another price you can’t see, and it’s just as important.
The Iran War: What’s Next for Stocks, Oil and More

The Iran War: What’s Next for Stocks, Oil and More

Posted March 02, 2026

By Enrique Abeyta

War broke out in the Middle East over the weekend. Here’s what it could mean for stocks, oil, and politics.
It’s Not Just You, This Market Is Mind-Melting

It’s Not Just You, This Market Is Mind-Melting

Posted February 27, 2026

By Greg Guenthner

Why does the market feel so frustrating right now? These charts tell the story.
Israel, India and Iran: The Calm Before the Strike

Israel, India and Iran: The Calm Before the Strike

Posted February 26, 2026

By Enrique Abeyta

Things are heating up on the geopolitical stage. Here’s how the market could react if bombs start to fall.
Tariff Tantrum Redux

Tariff Tantrum Redux

Posted February 23, 2026

By Enrique Abeyta

Trump is doubling down on his trade agenda after the Supreme Court smacked down his tariffs.
The S&P 500 Lies

The S&P 500 Lies

Posted February 18, 2026

By Nick Riso

The S&P 500 index has ceased functioning as an accurate measurement tool. And it’s all because of concentration.