Posted December 06, 2024
By Greg Guenthner
Bitcoin: To 100K and Beyond!
The market’s getting frothy as we dive deeper into the holiday melt-up season.
Stocks are ripping to new highs…
Crypto is recapturing some of its magic from years past…
And the most speculative plays on the market are enjoying time in the spotlight.
What more could we ask for?
Let’s dive in to see what big moves are driving this market higher into year-end.
Bitcoin Breaks the Barrier
It finally happened!
Bitcoin quietly topped $100K late Wednesday night and continued to run early Thursday, briefly topping $103,000.
Sure, it took its time getting there (and teased us a few times along the way).
I most recently predicted we would see a breakout above this highly anticipated round number over Thanksgiving weekend. But it took a little bit longer for Bitcoin to firm up and run.
That’s just fine with me. Now, I suspect we’re going to see a lot of crypto chatter heading into the weekend.
This means a focus on Bitcoin courtesy of the mainstream media, altcoin explosions, and everything else you would expect to see in a frothy crypto market.
Here’s how I think this plays out…
Bitcoin will generate some extra excitement and overshoot $100K (possibly even tagging 120-125K) over the next several weeks. There will be meme coin rallies and lots of FOMO.
Bitcoin will then get tired and probably at some point in mid to late January. It will retreat, then consolidate.
Speculators will continue to bask in the afterglow and bid up the altcoins and fresh meme coins. More FOMO ensues. Then, something crashes (maybe a coin or two blows up) and the whole business retreats and resets.
Of course, everything won’t play out exactly as I’m guessing. But this is the broad roadmap I’m using to stay on top of the trade.
I think it’s a smart move to continue to accumulate Bitcoin during these boom times (if that’s your thing) while trading the more explosive crypto stocks and altcoins.
Just be sure to take profits! I treat most crypto as a trading vehicle and not a long-term investment.
A majority of the meme coins will likely retrace close to 100% of their rallies. Not all of them, though; I’m sure a select few will have some sort of utility or long-term sustainability.
But for the sake of risk management, I treat them as trades rather than investments.
Flying Cars and Soaring Profits
If these huge crypto moves don’t get your blood pumping, perhaps you need to take a ride in a flying car.
One of the craziest experiences in a melt-up rally like this one is finding the hidden groups of speculative stocks that have captured the herd’s imagination.
This month, that theme is wildly futuristic — and fun!
Believe it or not, there’s more than one flying car company trading on the public markets. But today, I want to focus onJoby Aviation Inc. (JOBY).
JOBY is a $6 billion flying car company that has rallied as much as 90% since reporting earnings just one month ago.
This stock is no stranger to big rallies. Unfortunately, they tend to be followed by equally disastrous collapses.
In fact, I’d argue that JOBY is dangerously close to running into resistance this month.
To be clear, I’m not trying to knock on this company or its stock. Maybe I’ll whisk my great-grandkids to soccer practice in a Joby one day!
But as a trader, this stock is nothing more than a hit-and-run momentum play. If you catch a strong move, you sell and go searching for the next one.
Given how extended the stock is at the moment, I wouldn’t be grabbing for shares here. It could go to $6 just as easily as it could go to $12 before the end of the month. It’s simply too unpredictable!
What is helpful about watching these moves is that they give us the green light to take a little more risk on breakouts we want to buy.
If speculators are scooping up shares of flying car stocks, you know you’re in the midst of a red-hot market.
A Radioactive Breakout
Most traders are focused on tech-growth stocks, crypto memes, and the tiny, speculative runners that can produce quick gains as the market melts higher.
I don’t blame them. These are all great places to search for strong trades. But there’s another area of the market these speculators need to keep an eye on as the holidays approach…
I’m talking about uranium.
Uranium stocks are the ARK names of the metal and mining space, and a few of these miners are breaking out to new all-time highs…
We have a fresh uranium trade over at The Trading Desk where we bought calls on Cameco Corp. (CCJ) earlier this week:
CCJ can be a tricky trader. But you can clearly see the stock finally breaking free of a huge base by taking out those previous highs from all the way back in 2007. Wow!
I like CCJ on multiple timeframes. Not only is it coming out of this big base, but it’s also pushing toward a shorter-term breakout from tight consolidation on the daily chart.
This is the type of stock that can rally double-digits in a matter of days — which makes it the perfect play to grab into ideal market conditions.
That’s it for today!
Thanks for reading. If you have any questions, feedback, or topics you want covered in future issues...
Be sure to drop me a line at AskGreg@paradigmpressgroup.com and let me know!
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