
Posted April 08, 2025
By Ian Culley
Bitcoin: The Last Asset Left Standing
Wherever you stand on Trump Tariffs: Part Deux, I think we can all agree on a couple of things.
First, Trump has a knack for good television. The man knows how to put on a show, and “Liberation Day” was a complete spectacle.
Jeers and laughter floating across the Rose Garden provided some comic relief to the higher-than-expected tariffs levied against even the most inconsequential nations in remote parts of the globe.
But the markets are not amused by Trump’s tariff sideshow.
After last week’s tariff announcement, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) tech index saw its steepest two-day decline since the COVID selloff!
At one point during Monday’s early morning hours, the three-day drawdown resembled the darkest days of the ‘08 Financial Crisis.
If you’re feeling jittery, it means you’re still alive. Anyone who was overleveraged into this disaster can’t say the same.
Here’s a snapshot of Thursday and Friday’s combined returns for the top U.S. markets:
- Nasdaq 100: -11.57%
- S&P 500: -10.83%
- Dow Jones Industrials: -9.55%
- Russell 2000: -10.96%
- Copper: -13.04%
- Crude Oil: -14.05%
- Silver: -16.30%
- Gold: -4.17%
It was a total bloodbath for almost every asset last week. Except one… Bitcoin.
Not only did the flagship crypto not free fall with other risk assets, but it also managed to post a gain during the back half of the week.
I wouldn’t go so far as to call Bitcoin’s modest 1.67% return a rally. But it’s a far cry from the Nasdaq 100’s two-day pukefest.
In fact, Bitcoin’s recent action is beginning to challenge some of my long-held beliefs about crypto.
With that in mind, here are some key questions I will explore today:
Are we entering a new era for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies?
And are cryptocurrencies finally blossoming into an independent asset class?
Let’s dive in…
Bitcoin Decouples From Tech
Here’s a truth that most crypto evangelists refuse to admit: Cryptocurrencies are just tech stocks masquerading on the blockchain.
Just look at Bitcoin and large-cap tech side by side.
They’ve posed as identical twins since the back half of 2021. However, the 63-day rolling correlation in the lower pane tells a different story: Relationships strengthen as markets sell off and decouple during the early stages of a bull run.
You’ll notice that as stocks entered a bear market in 2022, the correlation study took the opposite path of price. The relationship grew tighter as Tech stocks and Bitcoin fell to the same tune. It was a classic case of risk assets holding hands in a downtrend.
On the flip side, the positive correlation weakened as Big Tech took flight the following year. Remember, 2023 marked the Nasdaq 100’s best first-half performance on record, so it’s not surprising the crypto giant failed to keep pace.
This pattern is beginning to change.
While Bitcoin and tech enjoyed strong bull runs leading into 2025, they failed to fall hand in hand last week like they did in 2022.
The key difference between then and now: Crypto ETFs.
Crypto Grows Up
In 2022, the average investor had few choices when it came to investing in Bitcoin aside from the ProShares U.S. Bitcoin-Linked ETF (BITO). But it wasn’t a pure play on the spot market.
It was slim pickings for the casual investor who wanted Bitcoin exposure without the hassle of opening a Coinbase account, handling a MetaMask wallet, or, heaven forbid, toying around with a Ledger.
Bitcoin was a trading vehicle, not a viable investment for your everyday investment portfolio.
That all changed early last year when the SEC approved the first spot bitcoin ETF.
Today, the market is flooded with crypto ETFs. Everyone can get their hands on a piece of Bitcoin, whether it's for yoloing or preparing for retirement — even Uncle Larry.
And based on the past few sessions, these more mature investors are content holding Bitcoin with diamond hands.
Perhaps it’s the goldbug in me, but I can’t call Bitcoin “Gold 2.0,” at least not yet. I need more evidence before making the leap from decentralized tech stock to store of value.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin is proving it deserves a seat at the table.
No, it’s not the most bullish chart in the world. But the fact that Bitcoin has held above its March lows is nothing short of a miracle in this environment.
Stocks hit the skids following the tariff escalations; Thursday and Friday’s action was brutal for the Nasdaq as it dropped nearly 12% in just two trading days.
Bitcoin remarkably stayed afloat. The 2-day rate-of-change fell nowhere near extreme levels, and prices didn’t budge.
In fact, it remained green until sellers finally came for it late Sunday, and the price sliced through $80K.
Choppy conditions will likely persist until buyers can drive prices back above the January lows.
I know it sounds boring, but Bitcoin might not offer traders the monster rallies we’ve seen in the past.
If it settles down, Bitcoin could finally become what crypto evangelists claim to have wanted from the start…
A safe haven trade, protecting its owners from volatile markets, inflation, and other threats to their wealth.
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