No need to sugarcoat it… It’s ugly out there!

Investors were hoping for a classic holiday season melt-up heading into the final stretch of 2025. Instead, we’re watching key market segments melt down.

The S&P 500 fell more than 1.6% on Thursday, erasing its November gains despite the end of the historic 43-day government shutdown.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite lost a cool 2.3% as tech stocks led the market lower.

What makes this particularly concerning to traders is that the formerly hot tech names and speculative darlings that have been falling for weeks are failing to catch a bid as the averages unwind this week.

Here’s where we stand heading into the middle of the month:

• The S&P 500 has wiped out its November advance, and the news is quickly flipping bearish.
• The odds of a Fed rate cut in December are now near 50/50, down from 92% just weeks ago.
• And the tailwinds that powered markets higher are shifting, with the most speculative corners feeling it first.

With crypto under pressure, spec-tech stocks in collapse, and breadth deteriorating, the path of least resistance right now is lower.

The potential melt-up has flipped to a melt-down situation. Now, we need to see if this will be a short-lived pullback — or something bigger.

My bet is still on the former… for now!

Last week, I talked about some important speculative groups to watch to help determine if and when the market might firm up and begin to rally again.

Today, I want to dive into some of these charts to search for some potential landing areas.

If the market’s going to turn it around anytime soon, this is what you’ll need to see from the charts…

A Landing Zone for the Q’s

The Nasdaq knifed below its 50-day moving average this morning. This marks its first significant drop below the shorter-term moving average since stocks bottomed back in April.

Now, we need to see where the bulls will step in.

A logical spot would be $585 on the QQQs. Not only is this where the 100-day moving average currently resides, it’s also right in the neighborhood of those August pivot highs.

A strong bounce off this spot (blue horizontal line) could spell the end of this pullback move.

If the Qs fail to quickly retake their 50-day moving average, we’ll keep a close eye out for a bounce near 585.

Can Crypto Catch a Bid?

Bitcoin and Ethereum have been some of the worst performers since the more speculative names topped out in early October. Bitcoin has dropped 25% over this timeframe, while Ethereum is down 35% from its August peak.

To be fair, neither has been much of a factor in this tech-dominated tape. Both are trailing the S&P year-to-date (in fact, ETH is now negative on the year following this morning’s drop).

But a strong bounce in crypto would certainly provide a jolt of fresh energy into this ailing market.

Turning to Bitcoin, I’m focused on the potential landing zone near $92K that we discussed last week.

Almost there!

The $100K level is an important psychological area for Bitcoin. The less time it spends below this round number, the better chance it has to ignite a stronger rip that everyone chases.

Sentiment is also in the gutter right now. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index (yes, there is such a thing) has plunged to its lowest level since April.

And Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility spiked to 78%, according to Crypto News, the highest mark since the FTX collapse.

The sentiment reset plus this week’s washout could be enough to get a bounce sooner rather than later…

What About the Tech-growth Stocks?

Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is a solid way to gauge the broader weakness in speculative growth stocks.

ARKK has dropped as much as 25% below its early October highs. From a technical perspective, ARKK has also cracked below its 100-day moving average this week, an area that also coincides with the ETF’s July and August highs.

As we discussed last week, I was watching that $79-$80 level for a potential bounce.

Now that ARKK has broken below this mark, we should watch for a move into the low $70 range if broader market weakness persists — or even a retest of the 200-day moving average just above $67 (red line).

The major averages are attempting to bounce off their lows as the weekend approaches. A strong push into the close could alleviate some of the bull’s more pressing fears of a bigger drawdown.

Ultimately, we’ll have to see how stocks react early next week. But every bounce has to start somewhere.

Keep a close eye on the charts and react accordingly!